2026 Falcon 9 lunar collision

Diagram showing the estimated impact location.

On August 5 at 06:34 UTC, the upper stage of a Falcon 9 rocket impacted the Moon near the Einstein crater. Amateur astronomers attempted to observe the collision, but were unsuccessful. The Moon's bright surface obscured any impact flash and the dust plume was too faint to visually detect with amateur equipment. However, the VLT was able to conduct an analysis of the impact site and found spectral lines consistent with a dust plume. Later, Korea's Danuri orbiter released photos it took before and immediately after the collision, further confirming the impact and showing changes to the lunar surface.

In the wake of the collision (no pun intended) there is a lot of misinformation being spread on social media, and of course plenty of flerf hysteria.

Background

The rocket body was the upper stage of a Falcon 9 launched on 15 January 2025, carrying payloads for NASA's CLPS. After the mission, the upper stage was left in orbit. Astronomer Bill Gray later discovered that it was on an unintentional collision course with the Moon, and predictions suggested an impact near the Einstein crater, right at the edge of the Earth-facing side of the Moon, at about 06:35 UTC. Gray predicted the impact would leave a crater more than 17m wide. The rocket body was around the size of a five-storey building, weighed around 4,000kg, and was travelling at around 8,690km/h at the time of impact.

Observations

Failed visual observations

Amateur astronomers attempted to observe an impact flash and/or dust plume, but were unsuccessful.

Observer	Viewing instrument	External link	Notes
The Drunk Debunk Show, Reds Rhetoric	Celestron C8 Edge HD	YouTube livestream
Chuck's Astrophotography	Celestron RASA 8	YouTube livestream

Very Large Telescope

The ESO's Very Large Telescope detected the dust plume and conducted spectral analysis (which didn't require a container). A spokesperson from the European Southern Observatory said:

We can confirm that the telescope detected spectral lines of sodium and lithium gas in the impact plume lasting for 5 to 10 minutes after impact.

The sodium is likely to have originated from lunar soil, while the lithium may have come from the rocket body itself.

Danuri lunar orbiter

South Korea's Danuri (also known as the Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter) released imagery it was able to gather before and immediately after the collision, showing noticeable changes to the lunar surface.

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Misinformation

Screenshot from a popular fake video of the impact. The origin of the animation is unknown, but it has been widely spread on social media following the rocket's impact.

Unfortunately, misinformation is often more appealing than the real thing, so it spreads much quicker. People want to see really awesome explosions and stuff rather than what actually happened, which was basically nothing. As a result, misleading posts on social media attract more attention than ones presenting reality.

Fake videos

Fake videos of the impact have been spread on social media and amassed millions of views. In reality, the impact was not visible from earth in the way these videos portray. The accounts posting them generally refuse to add a disclaimer (such as "artist's rendition") or cite where they got the video from. Examples:

• Instagram

Flerf reactions

• Commander Davenport called the impact "dangerous propaganda" because "the Moon is not a physical object you can crash things into". He then claimed that Venus and Mercury are sometimes visible "through the moon". He presents the fake video and says they're "seeing if they get called out for using CGI and AI" in preparation for Artemis' upcoming moon landing. Who knows why they would need to do this, seeing as they got away with it just fine in the 60s and 70s.